A detenção do diplomata norte-americano Ryan C. Fogle, na Rússia, por suspeitas de espionagem, parece ter mais do que aquilo que aparenta. Alegadamente, o terceiro secretário da embaixada dos Estados Unidos em Moscovo foi preso quando tentava recrutar um cidadão russo não identificado. No momento da captura teria com ele uma carta com instruções para aliciar novos agentes, duas perucas, três pares de óculos, um mapa de Moscovo e um compasso. A prisão foi depois documentada com uma série de fotografias que mostravam o momento da detenção. No entanto, nos Estados Unidos, as provas apresentadas para classificar Fogle de espião, estão a ser vistas como algo próprio de um filme de espionagem da década de 1960 do que da actualidade. Eis os motivos, apontados pelo The Washington Post:
(1) Fogle’s “letter” suspiciously ham-fisted. The typed, one-page note, allegedly found on Fogle when he was arrested, appears to be addressed to a the Russian official he was trying to recruit. It lays out, in great detail and almost childlike prose that has been compared to the e-mail spam you might get from a “Nigerian prince,” the CIA’s offer: Share your “expertise” and we’ll pay you $1 million per year. The plan comes across as a bit rudimentary for the world’s premier spy agency – it explains how to set up a Gmail account – and the instructions include nothing about what information or “expertise” the source is meant to supply. Most suspicious is the risk inherent in typing up such self-incriminating information in an otherwise bland letter, when this could have been easily communicated over the phone or in person.
(2) “Spy kit” looks like cheap costume shop regalia. Fogle’s alleged supplies when he was arrested, photos of which were disseminated on Russian media, include some cartoonish details: a map of Moscow (he doesn’t have a smartphone?), two wigs, three pairs of glasses, bags of Euros, a knife, a flashlight and – this is my favorite part – a compass. “Who uses a compass these days?” Mark Galeotti, a New York University professor who studies Russian security affairs, asked The Washington Post. “This would be a phenomenal breach of tradecraft. This isn’t what they teach you at the CIA.”
(3) CIA letter offers implausibly high pay-outs. According to the letter that Russian state security say they found on Fogle, the CIA was offering $100,000 up front and $1 million per year plus bonuses “if we receive some helpful information.” That implies that the CIA was offering a Russian official a staggering $1 million annually even if he or she doesn’t provide “helpful information” – something that would seem not just unusual but wildly inconsistent with past such pay-outs. In an incident from 2001, for example, a U.S. official offered a Russian source $400 for information on a naval minefield. Why would the agency offer so much more in this case, and without even the promise of any specific information?
(4) Russian media broadcast detailed video and photo awfully quickly. Just a few hours after Fogle’s arrest, the Moscow-financed network RT was already displaying a seemingly damning series of photos apparently documenting his guilt, not to mention a video showing the actual arrest. It’s not clear whether the footage was taken by Russian state security and then handed off the RT, or if, imagine the luck, RT reporters just happened to be on the scene when it happened. Either way, it certainly gives the appearance of close cooperation between Russian security services and the media.
(5) News broke at the exact moment the U.S. ambassador to Russia began a public Q&A session. Ambassador Michael McFaul, who has been something of a thorn in Moscow’s side, began a previously publicized Twitter question-and-answer session at 2:30 p.m. Moscow time. The story about Fogle also broke at 2:30 p.m., local time. Quite a coincidence. As Radio Free Europe notes in reporting the unusual timing, McFaul’s “tenure has been plagued by near-constant harassment by Russian officials and the media, which have portrayed him as misrepresenting Kremlin policy on Iran and North Korea and, more grievously, promoting a ‘revolution’ mentality among the Russian opposition.”
To be clear, none of this definitively proves anything about Fogle or Russian state security’s claim that he was an undercover CIA official seeking to pay a Russian source for information. But taken together, it helps explain why many Russia- and CIA-watchers seem skeptical about the case. As Washington Post columnist Jackson Diehlnoted on Twitter, “Busting an alleged spy is standard in Russia-U.S. relations. Turning it into a media event is a classic Cold War tactic.”
É também importante recordar que estas coisas acontecem regularmente. Há três anos, foram os Estados Unidos a desmontar uma alegada rede de espionagem russa em solo americano. Uma das agentes, Anna Chapman, tornou-se uma estrela na Rússia.
